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The Netherlands is still a legitimate target

Press release | 17-06-2011

The Netherlands is still considered a legitimate target by jihadists. Developments in jihadist conflict areas such as Afghanistan/Pakistan and Yemen and the threat these pose to Western countries therefore continue to be cause for concern. However, no indications have been found of specific acts in preparation of attacks against the Netherlands or Dutch persons or objects abroad. The death of Bin Laden does not have direct consequences for the threat assessment. The threat level for the Netherlands and Dutch interests abroad remains 'limited'. This means that the chance of an attack is relatively small, but cannot be excluded entirely. This is evident from the Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands, which was published today and has been drawn up by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

Threat level remains at 'limited' for the time being

The death of Osama Bin Laden is a blow to core Al-Qaeda. Nevertheless the question remains as to whether the death of Bin Laden will seriously weaken the jihadist movement. The strength of core Al-Qaeda has been weakened since the invasion of Afghanistan and Bin Laden himself played a subordinate role in recent years. Nor is his death likely to have a major impact on groups related to Al-Qaeda that have largely decided their own course. This does not detract from the fact that in the short term, the risk of acts of revenge aimed primarily at American and Pakistani targets, will have to be taken into account worldwide.

Prior to the death of Bin Laden, the popular uprisings and revolutions in parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East dominated the international context. The revolutions in the region can be seen as a success of secular and peaceful protests. However, they may also cause security risks in the short term, because freed jihadists in Tunisia and Egypt may involve themselves in conflicts in the region and consequently have a destabilising influence, or emigrate to other countries, for example in Europe. There are, for the time being, no signs that these risks are occurring at this time.

The jihadist threat against Western countries remains undiminished at present. The most prominent manifestation of this was seen in Germany and involved the shooting incident of a loner at the Frankfurt airport in March and the arrests in North Rhine-Westphalia in May.

The threat posed by domestic jihadist networks is limited. This does not detract from the fact that there are still persons in the Netherlands who cherish the jihadist ideal. The chance of these individuals preparing for an attack in the Netherlands in the short term is, however, small. The involvement of Dutch citizens in transnational jihadist networks is small as well, although several attempts to travel to conflict areas have been carried out. In the Netherlands, such jihad journeys only occur to a limited extent when compared with countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom or Sweden. Jihad travellers who have returned currently do not pose a threat.