From indices to insight. A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process

This report looks for ways to produce quick Early Warning and Early Action assessments that combine the advantages of structural data collection with the ability of researchers to account for the different ways in which conflict and violence may occur. It presents a proposal for visualizing data to allow for a quick inspection of noteworthy trends.

The interdepartmental working group Early Warning Early Action scans regions on potential escalation of violence or destabilization. These regional horizonscans assess the impact of an escalation/destabilization on the National Security Interests, and the likelihood (risk). Based on these horizonscans, the working group defines which countries are most relevant for the Netherlands and selects short- and watchlist countries. This report provides insight in how the National Security Interests can be objectively defined using a wide range of indicators. This report will be used for the horizon scanning of regions, in combination with Clingendael's report on impact assessment.