The United Kingdom wants to leave the European Union (EU) at midnight (Dutch time) on 31 January 2020. On 17 October the UK and the EU reached an agreement on the conditions for the UK’s departure from the EU (Brexit) and a transition period. This agreement must be approved by both the UK parliament and the European Parliament before it can enter into force.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s general election victory on 12 December makes it likely that the agreement will be approved by the UK parliament. The UK House of Commons approved the agreement by a large majority on 9 January. The agreement will be debated in the House of Lords in the next few weeks. If both houses approve the agreement, the European Parliament will vote on it in January.
Transition period (if the agreement is approved)
If the UK parliament and the European Parliament vote in favour of the Brexit agreement, the UK will leave the EU at midnight (Dutch time) on 31 January 2020. This will be followed by a transition period, which will last until 31 December 2020. During this period, all EU rules and regulations will continue to apply to the UK. Virtually nothing will change for businesses or for the public. This will give everyone more time to prepare themselves for the new agreements that the EU and the UK will conclude concerning their future relationship after 31 December 2020. If both the UK and the EU agree, this transition period may be extended once by two years, meaning it could remain in place until 31 December 2022. Prime Minister Johnson has said, however, that he will not seek an extension.
Only after Brexit can the EU and the UK start negotiating the details of their future relationship. This will include agreeing on what conditions will apply to EU-based companies that want to do business in and with the UK after the transition period. Negotiations will also take place on citizens’ rights and cooperation on security.
There will be more clarity on the new relationship between the EU and the UK only once this phase of the negotiations has been completed. The new agreements will enter into force after the transition period, which will end on 31 December 2020. These new agreements, too, will have to be approved by the individual member states, the UK parliament and the European Parliament. If no agreement is reached about the future relationship between the UK and EU, there will be a ‘no deal’ Brexit after the transition period.
The Netherlands does not negotiate with the UK directly. The EU negotiates on behalf of the 27 member states that will remain in the Union after the UK leaves.
If no agreement is concluded (‘no deal’ scenario)
Although there is still a possibility that no approved agreement with the UK on Brexit will be in place by 31 January 2020 (‘no deal’ scenario), Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election victory and the House of Commons’ approval have made this highly unlikely. Not until the end of the transition period (on 31 december 2020) there will be a new chance of a no deal scenario.
Brexit timelineKey dates in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU:
The new relationship between the EU and the UK begins, provided an agreement has been reached that has been approved by the EU member states, the European Parliament and the UK parliament.
The House of Commons votes in favour of the Brexit bill. That means the UK is on track to leave the EU on 31 January. The House of Lords and the European Parliament still have to approve the bill, however.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins the UK general election. This makes it likely that the Brexit agreement will be approved soon. If the UK parliament approves the agreement, the European Parliament can vote on it in January.
EU heads of state and government approve postponing the Brexit date to 31 January 2020, or earlier if the UK and European parliaments approve the withdrawal agreement before then.
The EU The EU agrees to push back the Brexit date to 31 January 2020. However, the heads of state and government of the remaining 27 EU member states must also give their approval.
On 22 October the UK parliament agreed to consider the Brexit legislation. But it decided more time was needed than the UK prime minister had proposed. This means that withdrawal with an agreement is no longer feasible on the intended Brexit date of 31 October. The Brexit agreement will not take effect before the Brexit legislation has been passed by the UK parliament.
The UK parliament decides that an additional extension of the Brexit date is necessary because it wishes to first consider the relevant legislation before voting on the withdrawal agreement. The British government then asks the EU to push back the Brexit date to 31 January 2020.
The European Union and the United Kingdom have approved the withdrawal agreement. The UK parliament and the European Parliament still have to approve the withdrawal agreement.
The 27 remaining EU-member states again allow the UK to postpone its departure, now until 31 October 2019 at the latest. Provided the UK takes part in the elections for the European Parliament, starting from 23 May 2019.
The other 27 EU member states indicate their willingness to allow the UK to postpone its departure (the UK had been due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019). If the UK parliament approves the withdrawal agreement on 29 March at the latest, Brexit will be delayed until 22 May to allow time to pass the necessary legislation. If the UK parliament has not approved the agreement by then, Brexit will be delayed until 12 April.
British Prime Minister Theresa May asks the EU to postpone Brexit until 30 June 2019. But this does not rule out the possibility that the UK will leave without a deal on 29 March. First, the other 27 EU member states must unanimously approve Mrs May's request.
The EU and the UK reach a provisional agreement. It includes a transition period until 31 December 2020 in which all EU rules continue to apply. It also covers the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The EU27 (EU member states except for the UK) establish that sufficient progress has been made in phase 1. This means that phase 2 of the negotiations can begin. In phase 2, the EU and the UK continue to negotiate the withdrawal agreement. But they also start discussing a transition period and exploring their future relationship.
